Dothan, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

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Weather Forecast Discussion

889
FXUS62 KTAE 231349
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
949 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

No updates were made to the forecast this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery currently shows
dry values in the 0.7 to 0.9 inch range across our region. METAR
observations are also showing dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s, except mid 60s at the coast. So the air mass is quite dry and
will remain that way through tonight.

Meanwhile at 500 mb, a strong ridge axis extends from Cuba to the
southwest Gulf of America. That ridge axis will start to gradually
amplify over the Middle and Western Gulf today, with our upper
heights rising modestly. Meanwhile, a weak surface high will
become established over the northeast Gulf.

So the prevalence of high pressure and a dry air mass will prevent
convection today. Building upper heights and abundant late May
sunshine will bring about 1-3 degrees of warming compared with
yesterdays high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

As a low-amplitude 500 mb ridge builds over the western Gulf on
Saturday, a quick-moving shortwave (currently back over Nevada)
is expected to zip across the northern periphery of the ridge from
the Mid- South region to the southern Appalachians. This could be
enough to fire off isolated thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon
over the Alabama Wiregrass region and inland FL Panhandle. Lack of
moisture will be a limiting factor, but the mid-level dry air will
also create a conditional threat for any thunderstorms to produce
gusty winds, given potential for entrainment of dry mid-level air.

A flat and low-amplitude 500 mb ridge axis will pass across our
region on Sunday. 1000-700 mb flow will become more southerly, and
PW values will moisten into the 1.3-1.5 inch range, which is
marginal for supporting deep, moist convection of there is a
respectable forcing mechanism. Guidance such as the SREF show a
stationary front starting to sharpen across northern Alabama and
northern Georgia on Sunday. As such, we will have isolated
afternoon thunderstorms for areas inland of the seabreeze for
Sunday afternoon. The drier air mass will be favorable for gusty
thunderstorm winds given dry air entrainment into thunderstorm
downdrafts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

The Southeast States will be under west-southwest flow aloft from
Monday through Wednesday, with a steady parade of shortwaves
moving by to our north and providing lift needed for thunderstorms
over Alabama and Georgia. Meanwhile, southerly 1000-700 mb flow
will steadily moisten the air mass a bit more each day. Peak PW
values of 1.6-1.9 inches are likely next Wednesday, which will
readily support deep moist convection in an environment where
low-level focus will come from the seabreeze and from any outflow
boundaries that flank southward from storms moving across central
AL and GA.

So thunderstorm chances increase on Monday and then again on
Tuesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Daytime temperatures will ease a few
degrees by midweek due to more clouds and convection, though muggy
dewpoints in the lower 70s will be common by then.

Upper heights will start to modestly lower next Thursday, as an
upper trough tries to dig southward from the Great Lakes region.
The front that will have been hung up across northern AL/GA should
start to push south toward our region, so expect scattered
afternoon thunderstorms to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A dry air mass
will preclude fog, and it will allow for nothing more than high-
based fair weather cumulus this afternoon inland of the seabreeze
front. Otherwise, light surface winds will prevail, with the
afternoon seabreeze affecting ECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

A weak high pressure center will be located over the northeast
Gulf through Monday morning, allowing only light and gentle
breezes outside of the nearshore afternoon seabreeze. High
pressure will move east of Florida later Monday into Tuesday,
supporting development of gentle southerly breezes across the
eastern Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Temperatures will undergo a day-to-day warming trend through
Sunday. Daytime temperatures over the holiday weekend will run 5
to 8 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, the air mass today will be
similarly dry as Thursday, but then dewpoints and humidity will
creep up over the weekend, as each days afternoon seabreeze pushes
a little more humidity onshore. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms
will reappear on Sunday, with coverage increasing a bit each day
through next Wednesday. Otherwise, high afternoon dispersion
values are expected each day through the weekend along and north
of the Florida state line.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

Higher thunderstorm chances are in the forecast from Tuesday
through Thursday of next week. Rainfall amounts do not appear
sufficient to cause flooding problems, but short-lived runoff
issues are possible where rainfall rates become intense beneath
the core of stronger storms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   95  68  96  71 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   88  73  89  74 /   0   0  10   0
Dothan        91  68  93  70 /   0   0  10  10
Albany        93  68  94  71 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      94  68  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    94  65  94  67 /   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  86  72  86  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner