Dothan, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

Weather Forecast Discussion

525
FXUS62 KTAE 191330
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
930 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Only minor changes made to the ongoing forecast. Tweaked the T, Td,
RH, Wind, Wind gust and Sky grids to reflect current trends. PoPs
and Wx grids look fine attm, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms confined to the Gulf. Could see inland
thunderstorms, but only isolated coverage is expected.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

A 596 dam mid-level high slides over Florida today with surface high
pressure nosing into the eastern Gulf. These will act to reduce rain
chances overall and also increase the heat. Southwesterly flow will
still allow for a few showers and storms to develop along the sea
breeze, mainly in the Panhandle. However, coverage will be limited
by the overall subsidence of the mid-level high. The bigger story
will be the heat. There may be just enough overlap today of the hot
temperatures and moist air flowing in from the southwest to get heat
index values up to 110. A good number of spots reached Heat Advisory
criteria yesterday in the Florida counties. Given all this, have
issued a Heat Advisory from the eastern Panhandle to the Suwannee
Valley and up to Valdosta. There is some uncertainty as to how much
we`ll mix out the dew points today, which may cause some places to
miss out on heat index values of 108. But, regardless of a heat
index of 107 vs 108, the impacts from dangerous heat remain the
same. Stay hydrated, find shade or A/C, and limit time outdoors.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Deep layer ridging will be in place Sunday across the northern
Gulf and southeast US providing strong subsidence and PWATs in the
1.5-1.7 inch range. Rain chances are quite low in this regime,
merely topping out at 20% favoring the wiregrass south to the
Florida panhandle. Most locales will remain dry with highs pushing
the upper 90s. Good mixing may preclude a heat advisory Sunday if
we can mix down drier air and dewpoints fall to the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Troughing sliding down the east coast Monday will push the high
center further west and allow a weak trough or cold front to
penetrate south towards the Gulf coast. With this, an influx of
moisture surges southwestward with PWATs quickly jumping back over 2
inches. Couple the added moisture with highs forecast in the upper
90s Monday and Tuesday and that spells a likelihood for heat
advisories with the most likely locations favoring the Florida
counties and extreme southwest Georgia where feels like temperatures
will be in the 107-112F. Rain chances do increase with time Mon-Tue
with 50-70% returning offering some short term relief to the heat if
you are lucky enough to get a shower/storm over your location.

Appears the weak front will move into the northern Gulf and clearing
the inland areas midweek with high pressure building behind the
front positioned in the northeast. A slightly cooler airmass will
filter down the Appalachians with highs in the low to mid 90s. If
this solution occurs, rain chances mid to late week may need to be
reduced as a drier northeast flow will set up. Models diverge at
this range so its a low confidence forecast at his stage.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Some patchy fog has develop near the terminals this morning with
some dips to MVFR vsbys. This should be relatively short-lived and
will likely mix out by 13z. Limited coverage of SHRA/TSRA is
expected today with the best chance near ECP, but only worth
mentioning in a PROB30. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
with generally SW winds around 5-10 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Favorable marine conditions are forecast into next week as high
pressure builds through the Gulf waters. Southerly winds today
will become westerly beginning tomorrow with speeds near and
around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots Monday through
Tuesday. Seas will remain 1 to 2 feet into next week. Fairly dry
this weekend with showers and thunderstorms returning early next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Rain chances decrease this weekend as high pressure builds across
the area with rain chances around 20-30% each afternoon before
increasing again Monday. Dispersions will be high north of I-10 each
afternoon given the high mixing heights and generally west to
southwest transport winds around 10-15 mph. Dangerous heat is
expected each afternoon as well with highs in the mid to upper 90s
and heat index values of 105-112.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

After a bout a generally dry conditions this weekend with deep
layer high pressure set up across the southeast US, troughing
sliding down the east coast will push that high further west and
allow moisture to ramp back up and showers and storms as a result.
A weak front will also push towards the Gulf coast midweek
sparking additional areas of convection. WPC outlines marginal
risks for excessive rainfall beginning Monday across our eastern
third of counties and most locations Tuesday and Wednesday.
Overall, rainfall amounts will average 1-2 inches through mid to
late week with isolated higher amounts closer to the coast and
Florida Big Bend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  77  98  78 /  20   0  20  10
Panama City   92  79  93  80 /  20   0  10  10
Dothan        95  74  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
Albany        97  76  98  77 /  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      98  76  98  78 /  10  10  10  10
Cross City    96  75  96  76 /  20   0  10   0
Apalachicola  91  78  92  79 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ012>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ159-160.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Bowser
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Scholl